Weather · resolved market
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 4 be between 60 and 70?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a207e86c7496dd44bd4781a643c5844bab90c721f179bb6feef4421e2fa6ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,781$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +210%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed No | 10c | 1,419$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 2c | 1,105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 11c | 953$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed No | 10c | 881$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 40c | 838.33$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.53 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 11c | 812$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 11c | 812$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 9c | 726$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 14c | 723$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 11c | 506$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 11c | 469$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 11c | 455$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 11c | 412$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked No | 11c | 387$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 11c | 381$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed No | 11c | 343$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 10c | 340$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 11c | 312$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 13c | 273$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 7c | 213.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 11c | 212$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed No | 11c | 192$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed No | 10c | 182$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 11c | 168$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 11c | 157$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 9c | 151.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 120.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…eea5backed No | 33c | 49.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 4 be between 60 and 70?this page
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 4 be between 50 and 60?No won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 4 be less than 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.