MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36bc70ec4a665e038de632e75a8bf5dec4e877e9478079d12fe9e31fc0300083
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 52c | 4,442$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.61 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 2,235$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 48c | 1,791$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.32 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 1,429$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 1,259$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 768.05$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 48c | 579.4$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.29 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 51c | 497.65$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 51c | 420$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 249$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 27c | 207$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 192.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 48c | 166.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 48c | 51.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 251 | 55.4%139 W · 112 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 64c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Over | 54c | 27.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Under | 42c | 25.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Over | 55c | 19.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 19.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.