MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7d1b253556dfeba8acfc2353b610f985d023a13a1050be9fd0f1982b08bc10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Houston Astros | 66c | 4,550$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 1,807$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 1,473$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 819.62$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.18 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 307.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.08 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 270.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 60c | 234$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 172.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 153.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 64c | 87.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 44.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 64c | 34.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 20.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.