Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c43d0e9994338bf3fd5b851c03d92f70ae75f72fda03f42be9bdcfc00c63f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Melbourne Victory FCof Melbourne City FC, Melbourne Victory FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Melbourne City FC | 15c | 618.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Melbourne Victory FC | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 151$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 111$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Melbourne Victory FC | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.