Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc05397d70becc85e1c11a108f32afb10a31537f1fa4c9025fd041a849f76cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 70c | 259$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 30c | 192.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 143.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 30c | 136.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 73c | 123$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +58%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 68c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 68c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Under | 72c | 51.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.