Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x485ddd18661df28eb3d0aa19ae26f620301bb86a7f89a3965e145b60c41c5c43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 76c | 175.08$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 167.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.88 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 22c | 133$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 22c | 99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 24c | 98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +58%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 22c | 92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 22c | 67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 23c | 66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 77c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Over | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Over | 78c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 77c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Over | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Over | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Over | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…854dbacked Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.