Dota2 · resolved market
1win to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36d78f85cc5e8d89e9b53a27214f824a72481fa411552b92c26d3757ab5df3f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd044…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,825$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b3…9abcbacked Yes | 22c | 849.57$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…01a9backed Yes | 22c | 767.04$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 78c | 645.09$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.25 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 12c | 331.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 242.57$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed No | 78c | 157.36$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 145.95$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 11c | 141.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 11c | 126.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed No | 78c | 108.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Yes | 34c | 93.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Yes | 22c | 72.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed No | 78c | 72.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed No | 79c | 72.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1win to win 2-0?this page
- 1win vs Team Yandex: Draw (1-1)?No won
- Team Yandex to win 2-0?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.