TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Svajdaof Cerundolo, Svajda
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Svajda48c9,506$4,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,980.8736346.8%170 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Cerundolo53c5,922$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.6172452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Cerundolo55c2,708$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Cerundolo1c2,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Cerundolo54c2,634$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.8257842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x820a…ca12backed Cerundolo54c1,401$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.3433442.5%142 W · 192 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed Svajda46c1,302$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.1621537.2%80 W · 135 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Svajda44c780$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.82441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo52c586.31$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.887,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Svajda46c507.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.3154450.6%275 W · 269 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Cerundolo58c403$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.7430847.7%147 W · 161 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc905…850bbacked Cerundolo55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035755.5%198 W · 159 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cerundolo49c336.02$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1895140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e93…79f3backed Cerundolo55c331.93$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5621257.5%122 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Cerundolo53c322.91$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.317,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Cerundolo47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14136435.2%128 W · 236 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Cerundolo50c285.89$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9422449.6%111 W · 113 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf703…541abacked Svajda48c271.85$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.859543.2%41 W · 54 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Svajda44c191.82$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5658745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Svajda43c188.29$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3238446.4%178 W · 206 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Cerundolo55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Svajda45c129.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4941955.8%234 W · 185 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74a3…3b73backed Svajda58c120.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.696349.2%31 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Cerundolo55c110.91$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6115961%97 W · 62 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Svajda46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.781933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Svajda45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5515646.8%73 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Cerundolo46c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.447854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cerundolo37c84.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.319,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d6…551abacked Cerundolo58c81.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed Svajda62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.62853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Cerundolo53c53.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.52,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Cerundolo31c52.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.412,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Cerundolo50c50.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.451,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Svajda44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4594058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Cerundolo53c41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7384640%338 W · 508 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc15c…a6b0backed Cerundolo57c32.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8328758.5%168 W · 119 L-1.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d34…e004backed Svajda48c31.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.252548%12 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Cerundolo47c30.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4957845.7%264 W · 314 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Svajda46c22.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0983047%390 W · 440 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31e2…e7b8backed Cerundolo54c22.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.09977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+58.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Cerundolo55c22.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f89…20bbbacked Cerundolo58c20.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210637.7%40 W · 66 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Cerundolo52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Cerundolo52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.493557.3%536 W · 399 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.