Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-20.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36e7d86eff48f70eb46bfe9492af6853c911d9affb742212412125898635cfa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nevada Wolf Packof Nevada Wolf Pack, Air Force Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,907 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Air Force Falcons | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 47c | 1,465$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.2 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Air Force Falcons | 7c | 1,207$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 68c | 854.14$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Air Force Falcons | 32c | 679.74$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.52 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed Air Force Falcons | 52c | 677.04$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.26 | 298 | 45.3%135 W · 163 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…f5f7backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 52c | 657.95$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 72c | 585.39$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.02 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Air Force Falcons | 48c | 458.96$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.83 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Air Force Falcons | 50c | 447.74$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 302.49$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 48c | 230.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nevada Wolf Pack | 47c | 185.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Air Force Falcons | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 134.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 131.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Air Force Falcons | 41c | 119.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Air Force Falcons | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Air Force Falcons | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 47c | 90.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 47c | 59.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Air Force Falcons | 48c | 51.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Air Force Falcons | 52c | 50.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 59c | 44.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 59c | 43.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 49c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Nevada Wolf Pack | 68c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack (-20.5)this page
- Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf PackNevada Wolf Pack won
- Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 139.5Under won
- Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack: O/U 141.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.