CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f38523de3fd321cd67f99f69082e376a3b48ad12e6d836d6416959471e7d98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof STATE, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x904e…0becbacked STATE | 27c | 904.34$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.21 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked STATE | 35c | 420.61$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 49c | 244.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.53 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Ursa | 27c | 193.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.18 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked STATE | 30c | 187.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked STATE | 43c | 181.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 40c | 137.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed STATE | 34c | 137$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Ursa | 58c | 120.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed STATE | 55c | 93.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked STATE | 60c | 67.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 318 | 52.8%168 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Ursa | 44c | 66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Ursa | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed STATE | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf355…6759backed STATE | 65c | 57.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked STATE | 58c | 54.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed STATE | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked STATE | 72c | 45.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Ursa | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Ursa | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed STATE | 56c | 33.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed STATE | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 133 | 24.8%33 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 57c | 28.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked Ursa | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 480 | 52.3%251 W · 229 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…c48fbacked Ursa | 67c | 20.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5473backed STATE | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 109 | 69.7%76 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Group AUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.