CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf85ad00a6dbffcae560f338b6f38e5399dd5d5571329e44a9a3bc1ad05c6a5a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof STATE, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Ursa | 55c | 3,450$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.48 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked STATE | 45c | 2,555$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.84 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed STATE | 54c | 2,032$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.35 | 205 | 54.1%111 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…44b7backed Ursa | 56c | 1,594$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.19 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Ursa | 55c | 907.6$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.42 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 30c | 658.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked STATE | 45c | 620.91$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked STATE | 39c | 425.92$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.24 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…07a7backed STATE | 45c | 415.85$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.13 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Ursa | 70c | 414.36$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.36 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Ursa | 57c | 351.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed STATE | 42c | 350.68$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Ursa | 55c | 269.76$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.39 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked STATE | 21c | 221.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked STATE | 37c | 209.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed STATE | 45c | 135.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed STATE | 42c | 120.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Ursa | 63c | 115.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked STATE | 42c | 114.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0d54backed Ursa | 70c | 114.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed STATE | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 66c | 96.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Ursa | 56c | 81.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Ursa | 80c | 62.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | -20.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Ursa | 60c | 58.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked STATE | 54c | 53.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Ursa | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a7…69a4backed STATE | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…29dbbacked Ursa | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…1b5bbacked STATE | 42c | 47.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1174…059abacked STATE | 54c | 47.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…eeb3backed Ursa | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Ursa | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…3c85backed STATE | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Ursa | 46c | 35.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 850 | 54.4%462 W · 388 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Ursa | 63c | 35.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 288 | 56.6%163 W · 125 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked Ursa | 72c | 35.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 480 | 52.3%251 W · 229 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Ursa | 55c | 35.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 172 | 57.6%99 W · 73 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed STATE | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 133 | 24.8%33 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Ursa | 58c | 33.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…1e3ebacked Ursa | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed STATE | 37c | 29.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e36…3faebacked Ursa | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.