Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Drake Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x371b5ddb866f436f55cc613696165b9a3de05a9760c154d9704fdae8c7181b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois State Redbirdsof Illinois State Redbirds, Drake Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Drake Bulldogs | 40c | 1,253$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.84 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 61c | 1,054$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.65 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Illinois State Redbirds | 58c | 891.55$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.45 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 61c | 828.13$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.23 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed Drake Bulldogs | 42c | 791$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Drake Bulldogs | 40c | 679.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 64c | 489.99$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Drake Bulldogs | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Drake Bulldogs | 37c | 340.32$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 60c | 276.69$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Drake Bulldogs | 41c | 265$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Drake Bulldogs | 39c | 225.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Drake Bulldogs | 39c | 160.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 215 | 35.3%76 W · 139 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Drake Bulldogs | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Drake Bulldogs | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Illinois State Redbirds | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Drake Bulldogs | 43c | 75.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…25dfbacked Drake Bulldogs | 38c | 63.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Illinois State Redbirds | 61c | 43.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Illinois State Redbirds | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Illinois State Redbirds | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…68fcbacked Drake Bulldogs | 40c | 26.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…72fbbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 59c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Illinois State Redbirds | 71c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Illinois State Redbirds | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…a9a3backed Illinois State Redbirds | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Illinois State Redbirds | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Illinois State Redbirds | 65c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Illinois State Redbirds | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.