MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x372e1faa10cd572ce25670c2629b069119b20a3bd1ee503499445eb5184e6cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 36,134$15,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,112.28 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 20,474$9,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,824.52 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 12,501$9,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,816.46 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 11,021$7,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,729.85 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 8,597$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,461.47 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 5,636$3,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.87 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…1b3fbacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 3,477$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 3,018$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.77 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 1,242$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 1,208$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 1,061$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.3 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 988.89$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.22 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 936.25$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.95 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 633$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.18 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 399.73$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.87 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 281.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.21 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 224.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 224.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.59 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 212.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 176$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 158.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 137.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…882dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Boston Red Sox | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 23.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.