Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3766b608e3e729af06e4de72fa45f3744d83570cebf9a3a0c75c7f8a8330637f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 370.08$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 50c | 261.53$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 49c | 258.83$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 51c | 220.84$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 213.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 200.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 60c | 165.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 67c | 149.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 39c | 147.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 145.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 92.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 19c | 89.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 68c | 73.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 44c | 55.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 59c | 51.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 51.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 45.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 40.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 44c | 32.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 61c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed No | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…9082backed Yes | 68c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 65c | 29.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 53c | 25.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 18.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.