NHL · resolved market
KHL: HC Sochi vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a1032c625a0d6c68359901e17c98ceca3150b414b7b3809cc8fa433949a1a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof HC Sochi, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked HC Sochi | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 800$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked HC Sochi | 17c | 189.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 75c | 151$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed HC Sochi | 18c | 138.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed HC Sochi | 23c | 132.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 127$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked HC Sochi | 24c | 109.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 109$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…1be2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 76c | 84.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…1505backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked HC Sochi | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed HC Sochi | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…781dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.