Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a8a57e1ab103619ecd59a1425d5dc1e7ecae730c56757637dbe3df504899a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 52c | 472.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 34c | 156.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 56.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 60c | 39.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 38.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 44c | 35.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 48c | 30.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 57c | 28.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 22.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…0b98backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…7083backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 12?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 12?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.