Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37c745f4e1f6b955f867c709df8ee3f2a085399af773657e280593fab9b6fb0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 3,949$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.13 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 63c | 1,184$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.02 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Over | 49c | 1,027$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.63 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 984.16$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.78 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 11c | 861.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…ff71backed Over | 47c | 599.98$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 64c | 373.46$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 368.31$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 57c | 350.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 88 | 73.9%65 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 335.91$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.7 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 60c | 308$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 74c | 304$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 31c | 274.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.19 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 74c | 212.56$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 240 | 30.4%73 W · 167 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b4…169bbacked Over | 78c | 194.57$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 26c | 153.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 56c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…33c0backed Over | 57c | 144.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…b620backed Over | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…4a9dbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 60c | 72.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Over | 56c | 66.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 57c | 52.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…b307backed Under | 52c | 47.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 56cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe113…375dbacked Under | 48c | 44.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…e776backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Over | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 71c | 32.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +11.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 230 | 61.3%141 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 60c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 63c | 21.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional: O/U 1.5this page
- Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sporting CP vs. CD Nacional: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.