Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e0104967a314b4df83e65c6f7101afbc6b5e32d7134d54c78c1925738d6a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 1c | 4,594$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 23c | 258.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.87 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 16c | 207.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 73c | 207.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 180.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 142.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.77 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 20c | 141.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 102.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 22c | 91.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 41c | 82.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 73.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 69c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 32c | 48.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 31c | 42.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 40.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 61c | 39.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 34c | 37.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 79c | 34.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 33.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 31.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 50c | 22.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 75c | 19.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 80c | 18.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed No | 71c | 18.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 17.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.