Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e7a18c598c4e58574cbd2ce9a87a8c925f7658ba3a75c27ba8ea91b214d872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 599.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 278.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 11c | 232.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 226.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 41c | 190.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 165.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 163$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 158.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 116.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 43c | 86.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 27c | 73.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 46c | 65.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 47c | 55.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 56c | 54.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…5630backed Yes | 58c | 51.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 53c | 41.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 40.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 39.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 41c | 39.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 38.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked No | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 36c | 31.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 31.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…dba2backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 30.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 48c | 30.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10a9…75b0backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…bba7backed Yes | 79c | 27.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 41c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 24.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 62c | 22.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 48c | 21.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 21.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 53c | 20.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.