Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37fa89b52f4c15a48ef3c89a82f1fe6f950e84b1b9425b3013aec8337feb2c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 11c | 13,830$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.06 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 8c | 5,023$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.35 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 3,006$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.93 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 10c | 2,145$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.7 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 5c | 1,349$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 48c | 1,030$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.3 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 7c | 957.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 49c | 524.95$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.97 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 53c | 495.79$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.13 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 10c | 422.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 10c | 403.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Yes | 50c | 398$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 9c | 343.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 9c | 292.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 9c | 277.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 48c | 249.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 9c | 198.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked No | 9c | 184.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 9c | 162.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 18c | 150.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 53c | 144.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 92 | 69.6%64 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 54c | 136.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 23c | 115.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9d…8929backed No | 12c | 111.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 12c | 97.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 33c | 90.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 50c | 60.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed No | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0939backed Yes | 46c | 50.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 55c | 41.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde78…1cf6backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Yes | 80c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed No | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 68c | 17.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.