Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38075bd311b914b287f35c89fef0373f9ac58d964733c1cc5ff26917973ed479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 356.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 344.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 340.46$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 227.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 672 | 43.6%293 W · 379 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 216.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 127.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 12,587 | 46.8%5,897 W · 6,690 L | -42.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 102.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,487 | 58.5%870 W · 617 L | +71.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 42c | 97.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 1,481 | 34.6%513 W · 968 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 92.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 6,900 | 39.5%2,723 W · 4,177 L | +271.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 27c | 87.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 61c | 83.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 72.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 65.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 4,041 | 35.6%1,438 W · 2,603 L | +41.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 61.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 61c | 51.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 51c | 44.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 33c | 43.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 73c | 41.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 61c | 37.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…fc8ebacked No | 62c | 31.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 60c | 30.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 68c | 28.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed No | 74c | 28.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 27.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,269 | 39.5%896 W · 1,373 L | -58.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 58c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…d3d1backed No | 76c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 60c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 62c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed No | 64c | 19.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 60c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 72c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,711 | 60.8%1,040 W · 671 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 66c | 15.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 77c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.