Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3829a85b1ef3dc4e462421a2b13e828d7622e0b2d31013484d5e5fee1b7e07aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bilibili Gamingof All Gamers, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8112…1e6fbacked All Gamers | 43c | 1,761$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.34 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Bilibili Gaming | 65c | 1,527$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.5 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…ed54backed All Gamers | 35c | 1,011$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Bilibili Gaming | 57c | 697.93$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 176 | 53.4%94 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked All Gamers | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed Bilibili Gaming | 58c | 373.57$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked All Gamers | 39c | 298.44$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Bilibili Gaming | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Bilibili Gaming | 60c | 162.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Bilibili Gaming | 65c | 157.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 634 | 47.9%304 W · 330 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed All Gamers | 35c | 152.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed Bilibili Gaming | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Bilibili Gaming | 40c | 58.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…c45dbacked All Gamers | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed8…2c70backed Bilibili Gaming | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Bilibili Gaming | 67c | 42.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 237 | 45.1%107 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Bilibili Gaming | 60c | 38.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 153 | 43.8%67 W · 86 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5)All Gamers won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group OmegaBilibili Gaming won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAll Gamers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.