TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof All Gamers, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$223,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,588 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed All Gamers60c22,222$13,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,444.2924145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Bilibili Gaming47c11,960$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,359.261330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Bilibili Gaming41c11,088$4,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,518.9354751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked All Gamers46c10,279$4,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.3812652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bilibili Gaming40c9,084$3,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,450.371,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b7…027dbacked Bilibili Gaming40c6,129$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,678.11520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed All Gamers42c5,395$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.911,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Bilibili Gaming38c5,155$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,175.24042.5%17 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaa…2094backed All Gamers63c3,660$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.491216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed All Gamers62c3,506$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.8619860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Bilibili Gaming53c2,646$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.1555348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Bilibili Gaming58c2,424$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.3452050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Bilibili Gaming47c2,390$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.9379650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed All Gamers57c2,100$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1974158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd723…25bfbacked Bilibili Gaming74c2,028$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Bilibili Gaming45c1,968$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.2811747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed All Gamers35c1,926$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.5246326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed All Gamers53c1,891$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed All Gamers39c1,742$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.5222344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked Bilibili Gaming44c1,655$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8112…1e6fbacked Bilibili Gaming43c1,583$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.913132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Bilibili Gaming53c1,512$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.4639646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Bilibili Gaming38c1,494$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.1915038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6277backed Bilibili Gaming65c1,435$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.24557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6da3…95a0backed All Gamers61c1,354$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.651752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x899c…8141backed All Gamers41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-37.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Bilibili Gaming79c1,193$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.2350944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked All Gamers74c1,131$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.5930652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Bilibili Gaming38c1,053$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.4929733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked All Gamers61c1,022$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.424946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked All Gamers42c1,021$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.2988844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf6b…ca87backed All Gamers2c999.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Bilibili Gaming56c987.18$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.1825336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Bilibili Gaming39c963$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.4356551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Bilibili Gaming73c914$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.211,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Bilibili Gaming37c888$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.4455152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Bilibili Gaming59c849.54$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.4719648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Bilibili Gaming38c826.57$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.9436138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4d…b0edbacked Bilibili Gaming76c785.21$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.211030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-52.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Bilibili Gaming59c783.1$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.0717349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Bilibili Gaming54c750.24$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.085759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Bilibili Gaming39c750.13$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.6828747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed All Gamers44c750$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33016547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed All Gamers61c746.91$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.624131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed All Gamers62c719.07$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.6915147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Bilibili Gaming53c694.33$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.193627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdaff…5cb1backed All Gamers2c689.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.79224.5%1 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed All Gamers49c666.4$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.8925347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked All Gamers26c634.47$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4355637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Bilibili Gaming37c599.99$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.996759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa597…79d7backed Bilibili Gaming54c595.48$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.538852.3%46 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Bilibili Gaming38c579.06$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.025151%26 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Bilibili Gaming55c563.86$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.131,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed All Gamers15c559.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.49439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed All Gamers14c554.25$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Bilibili Gaming68c549.84$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9157151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Bilibili Gaming42c531.44$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.2425660.9%156 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc2b…cec3backed Bilibili Gaming66c524.41$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+58.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed All Gamers43c514.02$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8649255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed All Gamers61c500.1$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0625453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Bilibili Gaming46c500$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.9822449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Bilibili Gaming37c499.99$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.9924946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Bilibili Gaming44c498.81$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3360022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed All Gamers49c491.02$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.774642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Bilibili Gaming78c483.86$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5823732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6297…1e59backed All Gamers62c460$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.22944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Bilibili Gaming39c447.61$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.6113455.2%74 W · 60 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed All Gamers17c422$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1214750.3%74 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb27d…3cc3backed All Gamers58c404.89$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.662948.3%14 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Bilibili Gaming49c396.67$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.417853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b50…fd61backed Bilibili Gaming59c387.08$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.71225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Bilibili Gaming37c386.22$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.322552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked All Gamers28c373.32$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.311,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed All Gamers41c351.98$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6133838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Bilibili Gaming43c349.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.56553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0724…9091backed Bilibili Gaming38c338.84$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea9…9248backed All Gamers62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011159.5%66 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked All Gamers5c304.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510628.3%30 W · 76 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed Bilibili Gaming66c303.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.327956.6%158 W · 121 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c23…cab3backed All Gamers50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507656.6%43 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed All Gamers57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17153442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Bilibili Gaming74c291.39$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.392065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed All Gamers55c289.97$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1451749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked All Gamers63c275.97$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.868243.9%36 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed All Gamers41c267.89$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.036048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed All Gamers10c267$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8826634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Bilibili Gaming70c262.47$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4731227.6%86 W · 226 L-33.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Bilibili Gaming55c260.22$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2713662.5%85 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bde…6e29backed Bilibili Gaming39c258$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Bilibili Gaming39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4125843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked All Gamers43c255.02$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5296245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked All Gamers51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.54845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ec7…4a76backed All Gamers22c249.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2514959.7%89 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed All Gamers30c249.01$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7519945.2%90 W · 109 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Bilibili Gaming39c248.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7214941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Bilibili Gaming50c232.03$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8554342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12d…dd67backed All Gamers52c231.88$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.16425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed All Gamers29c229.14$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.456630.3%20 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Bilibili Gaming44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2713044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed All Gamers21c226.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7216144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.