Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x384f4c45b0b335cebd10cedf83aab72616b9d8c0da3299794c6ab6e3493d3e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 562.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d5…375ebacked Yes | 3c | 425.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 279.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 249.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 210.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 191$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 182.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 175$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 11c | 169.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 161.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked Yes | 34c | 150.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 141.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 18c | 126.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 65c | 113.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 69c | 90.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…6012backed No | 68c | 70.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 69c | 69.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x513a…2b7cbacked Yes | 24c | 65.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 52c | 64.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 45.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…2465backed No | 63c | 41.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…c80bbacked Yes | 35c | 40.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 38.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 65c | 36.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 75c | 34.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 57c | 32.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 68c | 29.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 68c | 19.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 16.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 76c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.