Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x386a710b96de9210ab9c03a67367186752057a9e424c61da1550b1d55f487d0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 330$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 16c | 257.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 214.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 159.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…d048backed Yes | 35c | 126.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8f…4d8abacked Yes | 23c | 123.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 118.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 114.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 32c | 112.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 13c | 107.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 99.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 14c | 85.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 22c | 69.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 32c | 67.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 60c | 57.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 20c | 56.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 74c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 24c | 47.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 46.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 37.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 34.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 57c | 32.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 19.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 13.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.