Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38861256d9973e1479a0a3eea5139d1eb0a1fe48934518381a9f8928a8f3d068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2602…0ff3backed No | 80c | 1,800$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 422.51$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 27c | 199.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 189.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 12c | 179.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 160.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes | 19c | 156.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 151.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 138.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6b69backed Yes | 27c | 135.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 135.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 135.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed Yes | 17c | 118.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 113.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 23c | 112.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 106$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…09a6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…7642backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 99.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 18c | 99.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 17c | 94.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 74c | 78.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 77.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 74c | 73.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 72c | 64.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 50.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…63adbacked Yes | 21c | 48.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…fc57backed Yes | 29c | 40.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 73c | 37.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 74c | 33.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 80c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 79c | 28.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…c706backed No | 74c | 21.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 19.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…337abacked No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 33°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.