Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe61d48d89a481fa22bb97e5d5ffa4ee54d03334e6f611726ecd701f458616acd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 745.24$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 51c | 590.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 63c | 320$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 256.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 217.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 61c | 211.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 204.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 65c | 182.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 26c | 171.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 65c | 167.77$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 155.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 65c | 152.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 38c | 152.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 36c | 151.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 33c | 144.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 142.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 134.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 118.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 74c | 112$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 38c | 106.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 105.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 103.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…7642backed Yes | 35c | 103.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 102.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 86.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 83.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 78.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 63c | 78.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 77.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 15c | 77.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…7c75backed No | 50c | 76.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 64c | 75.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 72.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 63c | 67.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 66.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 70c | 65.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 39c | 64.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 34c | 62.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…0c24backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 48c | 60.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 76c | 56.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 53.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 45c | 53.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked No | 41c | 48.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 78c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…f733backed No | 79c | 43.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 27c | 43.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 63c | 42.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 41.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 40.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 30c | 39.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 37.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 37.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 32c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ed…bb68backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 54c | 33.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 47c | 30.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 64c | 27.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 27.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 41c | 26.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 49c | 25.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 24.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 65c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 57c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 54c | 23.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 69c | 20.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 74c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 33°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.