Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c58d9fc1c216c1f9b77074d58cda081fb131a0527342be7236dcb86bc25c370
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 4c | 1,974$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 971.26$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 16c | 722.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 548.7$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 9c | 504.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 331.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 325.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 296.53$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 34c | 283.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 30c | 258.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 180.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…af2abacked No | 12c | 175.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 153.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 147.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 35c | 147.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 69c | 144.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 34c | 142.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 25c | 141.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked No | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…ee3abacked Yes | 29c | 139.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 80c | 125.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 124.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 41c | 123.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 15c | 121.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 13c | 119.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 119.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 23c | 108.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 104.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…4d82backed Yes | 28c | 101.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 24c | 99.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 31c | 98.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 14c | 93.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 93.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 74c | 90.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 86.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 46c | 86.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 37c | 54.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…a066backed Yes | 40c | 52.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 29c | 45.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 42.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 40c | 41.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 48c | 40.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 40.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 73c | 40.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 35.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 80c | 26.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 51c | 22.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 75c | 19.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 18.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…c910backed No | 77c | 16.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 33°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.