Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x388d330e1c5964c116e8f690e6238b2821853ce2d435eadcedb746cb4fc93056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 14c | 1,207$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.57 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 69c | 141$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 69c | 101$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Over | 32c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Under | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Under | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Under | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Under | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Under | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.