Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894d90eb8ff63522e3243253c0af5a838b1f0a57bf3847aa3c3c57b286b8db56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 6,154$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640.05 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 6,089$3,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.59 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 31c | 373.57$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 354.79$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 23c | 186$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 69c | 141.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 23c | 135$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 23c | 124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 23c | 94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Over | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Over | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Under | 29c | 35.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Over | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Over | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Over | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Over | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Over | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Over | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Over | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Southampton FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.