Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Tsitsipas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x389714add2da2e36b23d2bb4441ce844dc6810ccd3c740d636c55004a97a9861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Bublik, Tsitsipas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Tsitsipas | 45c | 6,188$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,403.37 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…caf5backed Bublik | 63c | 2,484$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.45 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Bublik | 55c | 2,229$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.97 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Bublik | 55c | 2,125$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.77 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…b91dbacked Bublik | 55c | 1,769$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Tsitsipas | 35c | 1,117$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.52 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Tsitsipas | 45c | 657.99$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.51 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tsitsipas | 38c | 540.58$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.5 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tsitsipas | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Bublik | 55c | 389.2$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.06 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Bublik | 54c | 325.32$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…57ffbacked Bublik | 55c | 274.21$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Bublik | 62c | 262.82$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.48 | 252 | 40.5%102 W · 150 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Bublik | 62c | 194.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Bublik | 55c | 190.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tsitsipas | 40c | 180.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Bublik | 42c | 176.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Bublik | 54c | 168.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Bublik | 15c | 143.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Tsitsipas | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Tsitsipas | 78c | 100.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Tsitsipas | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Bublik | 55c | 99.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Bublik | 55c | 92.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…a1c1backed Tsitsipas | 46c | 83.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 226 | 42%95 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed Bublik | 59c | 82.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…abeabacked Tsitsipas | 42c | 59.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…f0bcbacked Bublik | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bublik | 52c | 36.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Tsitsipas | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f78…cc0bbacked Bublik | 59c | 34.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Bublik | 54c | 34.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Bublik | 55c | 24.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Tsitsipas | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x205a…682abacked Bublik | 55c | 18.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Tsitsipasthis page
- Bublik vs. Tsitsipas: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos TsitsipasStefanos Tsitsipas won
- Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)Tsitsipas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.