MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e477094381854b31b5f23d2fef71c681061cfa366ac69bf6062f2618883443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 3,552$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.84 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 3,300$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 2,200$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 2,085$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.7 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 2,080$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.6 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 1,976$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,715$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.98 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 1,619$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.41 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…d81bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 1,507$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 962.17$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.47 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 717.22$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.74 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 526.3$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 291.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 163.58$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 75.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 58.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 34.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 30.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 23.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…4608backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 22.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 21.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 18.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…f8d6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 16.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.