Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38f1d5a71e4475961aa81d87b7cc95f59cb17249e82290dbf2d94f7faea27f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 1,362$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.47 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 960.95$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.98 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 705.89$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.42 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 43c | 459.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.19 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 69c | 336.33$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 322$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 280.2$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.51 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 243.78$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Under | 27c | 177.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 60c | 144.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…ded3backed Under | 27c | 141.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Over | 20c | 128.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 54c | 119.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Over | 54c | 101.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b5…56cdbacked Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 49c | 87.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 69c | 71.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 25c | 61.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 57c | 56.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 72c | 55.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 74c | 49.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 57c | 44.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 44c | 44.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Over | 58c | 43.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 58c | 30.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed Over | 66c | 27.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 57c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 26.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 56c | 18.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 65c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…1cf7backed Over | 70c | 15.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-2.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.