Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Jordan Thompson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38f8276b44ad2f4baf20283d3f8fce66f19354032bfd812b1267ab2f01fb2f02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Humbertof Humbert, Thompson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Humbert | 77c | 7,386$5,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.69 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Thompson | 19c | 4,935$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.84 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Thompson | 22c | 3,231$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.99 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Humbert | 79c | 2,504$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.13 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Thompson | 40c | 1,600$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Thompson | 40c | 1,067$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.46 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Humbert | 58c | 824.34$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.53 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Humbert | 61c | 783$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.37 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Thompson | 19c | 740$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Humbert | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Thompson | 21c | 508$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.61 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Thompson | 42c | 503.06$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.55 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Thompson | 23c | 433.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thompson | 39c | 179.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Humbert | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Humbert | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Humbert | 74c | 133$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Humbert | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Thompson | 25c | 102$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Thompson | 25c | 101.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Humbert | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Humbert | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Thompson | 21c | 52.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Thompson | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Thompson | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Thompson | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…8125backed Humbert | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.