Fifa International · resolved market
Croatia leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x392ed1632411336f62b017e6016349825cead14c92eefa6c49df6e33ef64991a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes | 16c | 16,898$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.63 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe214…c5cebacked Yes | 17c | 14,185$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.37 | 224 | 37.1%83 W · 141 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 7,814$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.45 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 16c | 3,729$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.61 | 674 | 47.6%321 W · 353 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…e818backed Yes | 3c | 2,414$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…19ccbacked Yes | 6c | 2,026$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 668 | 46.7%312 W · 356 L | +45.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 198 | 23.7%47 W · 151 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…85febacked Yes | 17c | 1,765$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,543$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 306 | 7.8%24 W · 282 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…1579backed Yes | 13c | 1,534$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…3e89backed Yes | 7c | 1,425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 19.6%22 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…c2d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,280$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 5c | 975.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…9ba3backed Yes | 17c | 970.24$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4453backed Yes | 16c | 799.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +20.5wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 14c | 571.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked Yes | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +34.7wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +61%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 366 | 31.1%114 W · 252 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2295…17e6backed Yes | 5c | 413.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…6129backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 17c | 362$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 16c | 307.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 17c | 278.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…1e00backed Yes | 17c | 220.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95c…7dd1backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 173.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 17c | 171.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…7fc7backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…a5c3backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Yes | 17c | 111.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 709 | 48.9%347 W · 362 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 17c | 103.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…67fabacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 16c | 80.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 16c | 63.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…573abacked Yes | 17c | 63.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…80cebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Croatia leading at halftime?this page
- England leading at halftime?No won
- England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.