World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3936a8619e6a94cfc039b8250e56ce03f9924bc91b8c7242890b4938cd60ed9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,768$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.84 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 1,410$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 1,121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 5c | 581.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 533.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 488.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 9c | 414.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 8c | 404.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 317.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 10c | 258.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 257.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 8c | 256.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 8c | 254.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 243.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 14c | 207.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed Yes | 22c | 207.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 7c | 191.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 160.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 7c | 157.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 13c | 156.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 13c | 154.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 12c | 126.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…5411backed Yes | 16c | 125.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 105.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 11c | 102.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 21c | 94.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 21c | 84.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 53.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 75c | 42.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 77c | 31.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 73c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 80c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.