World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4630b63c7d3e729b9c484e627a7b5d7ccc269e6b2189f1b1b982f9badf1f821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed No | 79c | 496.02$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 488.48$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.83 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 477.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 37c | 403.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 48c | 313.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab9…bedebacked No | 64c | 313.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 291.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 285.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 284.09$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 270.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 249.47$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 22c | 214.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 24c | 212.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 18c | 210.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 23c | 208$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 201.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 62c | 193.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 192.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 31c | 177.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 174.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 21c | 171.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 18c | 169.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 159.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 33c | 156.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 151.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 150.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 26c | 138.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 135$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 23c | 133.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 23c | 133.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 130.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 130.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 35c | 129.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 32c | 119.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 114.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 27c | 112.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 109.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 107.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 106.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 106.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 103.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 79c | 103$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 42c | 101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 37c | 99.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 69c | 98.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 97.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 94.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 94.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 92.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 22c | 88.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…dfd5backed Yes | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 84.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 33c | 84.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 59c | 81.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 69c | 72.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 73c | 68.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 67.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 74c | 67.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 63.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 80c | 62.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 42c | 61.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 36c | 61.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 57.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 56.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…d2b8backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 37c | 53.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 38c | 53.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 52.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 33c | 51.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 41c | 47.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 40c | 47.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 46.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 46.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 24c | 45.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…c6bcbacked No | 70c | 45.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 64c | 45.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…20dfbacked Yes | 34c | 41.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 29c | 37.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 61c | 37.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 31c | 37.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 68c | 34.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes | 42c | 33.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 36c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.