Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Maryland Terrapins vs. Virginia Cavaliers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39459df2757f2d163a2e73b5ee0ae1fbef2299c38125b22e3643265214b96377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Maryland Terrapins, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Maryland Terrapins | 25c | 1,218$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maryland Terrapins | 7c | 1,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Maryland Terrapins | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Maryland Terrapins | 8c | 501$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Maryland Terrapins | 21c | 477.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4dc1backed Maryland Terrapins | 10c | 452.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 79c | 439.89$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Maryland Terrapins | 8c | 419.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Maryland Terrapins | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virginia Cavaliers | 76c | 208.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Maryland Terrapins | 11c | 161.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dca…a7acbacked Maryland Terrapins | 28c | 116.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 252 | 54.8%138 W · 114 L | -15.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Maryland Terrapins | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Virginia Cavaliers | 79c | 41.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Maryland Terrapins | 29c | 41.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Virginia Cavaliersthis page
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-14.5)Maryland Terrapins won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-15.5)Maryland Terrapins won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-16.5)Maryland Terrapins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.