Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eb942b3810429ce0bf8a50f3a055c1cc1a2dd0c49aa35b401abb3afdbe763f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maryland Terrapinsof Virginia Cavaliers, Maryland Terrapins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac75…1319backed Maryland Terrapins | 52c | 18,296$9,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,860.43 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 7,887$3,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,934.15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 3,650$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.5 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 2,048$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.5 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 1,055$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.85 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 1,010$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.9 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 334$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maryland Terrapins | 49c | 287$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 200 | 46.5%93 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Virginia Cavaliers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 182.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maryland Terrapins | 49c | 108.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Maryland Terrapins | 49c | 57.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efe…df51backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Virginia Cavaliers | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-15.5)this page
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-14.5)Maryland Terrapins won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-16.5)Maryland Terrapins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.