Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39588d47f8dcea06cca2e3b2a17f5df7bf8774e92701f4fe46c9a489aed7b920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 57c | 1,023$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.17 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 74c | 675.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 512.86$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.51 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 60c | 452.23$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 26c | 250$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 52c | 192.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 186.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Under | 7c | 180.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +292.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 26c | 180$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 19c | 147.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 76c | 125$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 84.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…8336backed Over | 67c | 70.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 63c | 47.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 26c | 41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 202 | 56.4%114 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 53c | 23.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.