NHL · resolved market
KHL: Spartak Moscow vs. HC Dynamo Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3960dad33fd889085f61c5c3e871afa15653b04a5438f2c5af3575c2039838c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HC Dynamo Moscowof Spartak Moscow, HC Dynamo Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Spartak Moscow | 58c | 1,061$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.6 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 42c | 807.65$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.44 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…bc9bbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 42c | 185.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Spartak Moscow | 35c | 112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Spartak Moscow | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 59c | 99.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Spartak Moscow | 59c | 95.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Spartak Moscow | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Spartak Moscow | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 42c | 30.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2a05backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 62c | 24.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.