Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x397c0d6a6e99328c7f33c2cd440830f1a54e2fa5bb77cb9f866f50ac74e573fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 18c | 948.89$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.77 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 31c | 809.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.37 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 658.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.5 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 78c | 545.01$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.34 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 42c | 538.1$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 31c | 400$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 46c | 294.44$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 27c | 206.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 176.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 40c | 116.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 63c | 116.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 41c | 112.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 72c | 98.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 37c | 95.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 95.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 44c | 95.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 38c | 76.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 54c | 68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 55c | 61.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 56c | 31.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 71c | 22.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 63c | 16.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atlétic Club d'Escaldes (-2.5)FK Mornar Bar won
- Spread: FK Mornar Bar (-1.5)Atlétic Club d'Escaldes won
- Spread: FK Mornar Bar (-2.5)Atlétic Club d'Escaldes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.