NBA · resolved market
Luka Doncic 2024 NBA Finals MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x397c3a813cfc9b62115caf86ca2066d5cdcecb49a6695622a5d173c6f7814a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 3c | 3,823$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…b579backed Yes | 31c | 1,164$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…024bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 32c | 974.8$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 30c | 876.62$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 5c | 871.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…7949backed Yes | 13c | 814.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed Yes | 31c | 800$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 6c | 563.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6853…5846backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…125fbacked Yes | 31c | 370.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…99b9backed Yes | 6c | 344.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…e1cbbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 69c | 255.74$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…587bbacked Yes | 31c | 212.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…4e36backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…cbfabacked No | 70c | 157.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…326fbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…94a4backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…ec26backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…1815backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…61c7backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e73…b782backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…7abcbacked Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…3997backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…af86backed Yes | 75c | 26.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…7969backed No | 71c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luka Doncic 2024 NBA Finals MVP?this page
- Al Horford 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP?Yes won
- Jayson Tatum 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Jrue Holiday 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Kristaps Porzingis 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Kyrie Irving 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.