NBA · resolved market
Jayson Tatum 2024 NBA Finals MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4fded06ce8e8f064357bd2833b72a2204f73b3b14e651da8ec58ea1d0adcd32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 25c | 5,605$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.18 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361e…60b0backed No | 55c | 2,039$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed Yes | 49c | 1,600$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…c91ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,017$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,003$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 43c | 731.4$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa688…25f8backed Yes | 33c | 588.48$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 33c | 564.42$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 65c | 514.19$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…73acbacked No | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6853…5846backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…ae23backed Yes | 39c | 325.07$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…c3dcbacked No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…67e6backed No | 55c | 212.73$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 43c | 198.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf53…b5eabacked Yes | 43c | 144.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 15c | 110.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…764bbacked Yes | 40c | 85.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 65c | 81.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cc…29b3backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…61c7backed Yes | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…178abacked No | 74c | 60.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…5c8dbacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4726…936cbacked Yes | 38c | 57.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…7351backed Yes | 28c | 55.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…4931backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 53c | 41.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bda…9966backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…e51dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e75…ae9abacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6af5backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…7723backed Yes | 45c | 33.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…f84ebacked Yes | 39c | 30.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…8822backed No | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe054…907ebacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…08c8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…2180backed No | 67c | 15.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jayson Tatum 2024 NBA Finals MVP?this page
- Al Horford 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Jaylen Brown 2024 NBA Finals MVP?Yes won
- Jrue Holiday 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Kristaps Porzingis 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Kyrie Irving 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Luka Doncic 2024 NBA Finals MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.