Asian League · resolved market
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39aa5082561854deba47010a55d00d939e548c5c61970b1ca7656e345ff33eca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 3,470$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.75 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 2,268$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.61 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 49c | 1,894$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.83 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 48c | 1,033$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.57 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 45c | 659.42$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.87 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 456.16$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.75 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 45c | 438$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 371.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…fe8ebacked Under | 45c | 364.11$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 112.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 76c | 101.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 40c | 93.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 65c | 91.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 44c | 91.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Over | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked Under | 34c | 58.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 53c | 56.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed Over | 38c | 47.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…cec0backed Over | 58c | 43.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 49c | 40.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c3…443ebacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 38c | 32.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 62c | 31.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 51c | 26.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 59c | 22.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5this page
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Under won
- Gamba Ōsaka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.