Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39cc1118870396e0d3a7fe0d430e9f70707b5e3623db9ac2e4eed4cd2d3e05a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 20c | 1,594$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.84 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 486.87$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 13c | 200.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 14c | 170.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 149.54$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 20c | 125.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 100.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 88.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 22c | 88.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 25c | 79.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 20c | 74.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 20c | 74.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 19c | 67.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 80c | 39.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 38.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 29.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…100ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 23.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.