Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d633a184e798e6e9b26065813a6e9bdbb31d8cf8a461e11eb1de6b20f13c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 15c | 710.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 450.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 216.74$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 18c | 215$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 78c | 191.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 186.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 162.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 67c | 150.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 148.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 143$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 140.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 551 | 25.2%139 W · 412 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 133.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 23c | 130.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 126.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 103.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 96.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 87.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 86.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 70.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6845backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 67.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 66.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 59.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…a075backed No | 78c | 58.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 74c | 55.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 55.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 20c | 54.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 23c | 53.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 46.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 73c | 34.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked No | 76c | 30.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 73c | 29.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b82…4b1cbacked No | 80c | 23.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,597 | 78.6%1,255 W · 342 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 21.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…3220backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 73c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 446 | 65.5%292 W · 154 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.