Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a9c3e8db3fd726dc1fa3668fa896199e5fc4ebaab5b21a8d89abd85ad3b0bd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 242.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 32c | 237.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 551 | 25.2%139 W · 412 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 61c | 223.18$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 212.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 201.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 198.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.13 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 47c | 169.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 143$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 58c | 137.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 38c | 132.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 131.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 42c | 117.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 22c | 113.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 21c | 105.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 50c | 102.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 101.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 55c | 99.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 98.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 15c | 92.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 26c | 89.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 88.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 78.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 77.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 77c | 75.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 50c | 74.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 50c | 72.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 23c | 69.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 59.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 59.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 53c | 56.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 57c | 56.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 52c | 47.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 43.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 38.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 36.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 50c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 68c | 32.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2070…6af5backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 33c | 31.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 30.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 29.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 24.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 65c | 22.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…3220backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…f233backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 59c | 17.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 61c | 16.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.