Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs. XG
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39d1ab02ef0ef13476941ff5256b6608de592c5663caf0d82d74c6036eeffc9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- XGof Aurora, XG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7116…b487backed Aurora | 52c | 4,004$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed XG | 40c | 3,200$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,908.69 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed XG | 40c | 2,141$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.87 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Aurora | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked XG | 44c | 1,133$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.39 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed XG | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora | 59c | 998.98$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.07 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked XG | 40c | 753$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.8 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaf…95c4backed Aurora | 67c | 654.4$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked XG | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Aurora | 60c | 530.14$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed XG | 43c | 504.29$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.55 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…869dbacked XG | 40c | 467$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 65c | 373.93$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3810…b5e6backed Aurora | 38c | 365.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Aurora | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Aurora | 60c | 323.47$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.08 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed XG | 42c | 285$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Aurora | 60c | 266.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed XG | 68c | 263.85$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed Aurora | 60c | 248.33$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Aurora | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed XG | 41c | 165.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked XG | 43c | 134.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed Aurora | 59c | 95.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe972…4cfbbacked Aurora | 60c | 83.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1f…81a1backed XG | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed XG | 51c | 74.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cad…888fbacked Aurora | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Aurora | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Aurora | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked XG | 53c | 40.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…68bebacked Aurora | 64c | 38.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora | 64c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Aurora | 58c | 31.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…65eabacked XG | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…8b6cbacked XG | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.