NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39d5a98049e8bf2bb8090e08679843674c57cc02c2e74596ff0ce6d74d547b82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Maple Leafs, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Red Wings | 44c | 91,624$40,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,547.21 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 42,102$19,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,419.28 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 35,264$19,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,748 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Red Wings | 71c | 34,806$24,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,058.65 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 20,103$11,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,457.57 | 167 | 43.1%72 W · 95 L | -12.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Red Wings | 43c | 20,000$8,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,399.98 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 12,088$6,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,890.03 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Maple Leafs | 45c | 9,751$4,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,372.08 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 6,427$3,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,959.29 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Red Wings | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 3,537$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.36 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 3,100$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…9fdabacked Red Wings | 43c | 2,711$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…2f2dbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Red Wings | 61c | 2,533$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.37 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Red Wings | 42c | 2,250$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.49 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 1,945$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.1 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…ed91backed Red Wings | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Red Wings | 44c | 1,482$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.86 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…53fabacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Red Wings | 43c | 1,289$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.75 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 1,254$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.93 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 1,194$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.57 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Maple Leafs | 43c | 1,166$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 1,063$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 1,019$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…fc55backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Red Wings | 43c | 999.98$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.99 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Red Wings | 68c | 966.42$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.61 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Red Wings | 43c | 943.51$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.8 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 937$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.72 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…e18abacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 868.42$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Red Wings | 43c | 827.16$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.48 | 156 | 46.2%72 W · 84 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 750$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 740.44$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 606.75$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.78 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 597.32$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.47 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…aa95backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 579.14$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.69 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Red Wings | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 399.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 600 | 42.8%257 W · 343 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 380$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Maple Leafs | 12c | 357.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | +29.4wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Red Wings | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 335$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.95 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 303.45$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Maple Leafs | 21c | 284$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…23cbbacked Red Wings | 13c | 242.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.67 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 235.44$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Red Wings | 27c | 233.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.33 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Red Wings | 42c | 230.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.41 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Maple Leafs | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 189 | 5.3%10 W · 179 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 216.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…020bbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Red Wings | 42c | 191.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…48a9backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 185$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 181.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 178.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 41%73 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +7.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Maple Leafs | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Red Wings | 58c | 125.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 121.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Red Wings | 43c | 118.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3640…9b87backed Red Wings | 43c | 114.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…dccbbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 113.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Red Wings | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 439 | 44.6%196 W · 243 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…9f33backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Red Wings | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Red Wings | 48c | 85.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 84.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 82.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Red Wings | 44c | 80.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Wings | 44c | 78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12cb…cc16backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…8af2backed Red Wings | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Red Wings | 42c | 59.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Red Wings | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked Red Wings | 44c | 48.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Red Wings | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Red Wings | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Red Wings | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x580b…5461backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Red Wingsthis page
- Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.